Mortgage Rate Forecast: February 2009

The Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory - February 27, 2009

What the Markets Are Doing Today:

Both the bond market and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) opened up in price today before retreating. Both are now down in price (yields up) Friday's bond market despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are also reversing course from early morning losses:

  • The Dow opened down 140 points from yesterday's close and is currently down 16 points
  • NASDAQ opened down 18 points from yesterday's close and is currently up 1 point
  • The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 15/32 from yesterday's close and is currently down 14/32
  • FNMA 30 Year 4.5% coupon opened up 5/32 from yesterday's close and is currently down 3/32

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 2/32 from its opening yesterday morning, and is currently down another 3/32 late this morning. I expect mortgage rates again will be a little more expensive today than yesterday by an 0.125% in price.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

  • Revision to the 4th Quarter GDP - The 4th Quarter GDP was revised downward from last month's preliminary estimate. The GDP shrank at 6.2% annual pace, and is the worst quarterly reading since 1982. It is also weaker than the 5.2% decline that analysts were forecasting, and is also much weaker than the negative 3.8% that was posted last month. That indicates that the economy is weaker than many had believed. This is generally considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

    A key inflation reading that is contained in the report went from a -0.1% to a +0.5%. This means that despite the drop in activity, economists are still concern about inflation. This reading, along with increased debt supply concerns as a result of the Fed's revised holdings in Citigroup, is having a negative impact on bonds and MBS (prices fall, yields up).

  • Revision to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for February - The index showed a reading of 56.3, which iss little change from this month's previous estimate of 56.2. This news had no impact on the markets.

Important News of the Day:

The Treasury Department has agreed to a third rescue attempt of Citigroup. The Feds could convert up to $25 billion of preferred shares into common stock. The conversion gives the U.S. a 36% share of Citigroup

Economic reports are scheduled for everyday next week except Tuesday. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch on Monday.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

High Volatility. Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets, and there's additional downward pressure on MBS prices again today (meaning higher rates). Also, the supply of T-bills on the market to pay for the massive debt obligations continues to weigh heavily on the market. I expect the markets will be volatile today.

If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

  • Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

The Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory - February 26, 2009

What the Markets Are Doing Today:

Both the bond market and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) opened down in price today as the government continues its sales of even more government debt that is expected later today. $22 billion in 7-year notes will be auctioned today. That will bring the total to a record $94 billion in bonds and notes that the Treasury Dept. has offered over the past three days. Meanwhile, stocks opened up after the President proposed providing as much as another $750 billion in aid for the financial industry.

  • The Dow opened up 74 points from yesterday's close and is currently up 116 points
  • NASDAQ opened up 10 points from yesterday's close and is currently up 16 points
  • The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 19/32 from yesterday's close and is currently down 25/32
  • FNMA 30 Year 4.5% coupon opened down 4/32 from yesterday's close and is currently down 13/32

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 15/32 from its opening yesterday morning, and is currently down another 4/32 this morning. I expect mortgage rates again will be a little more expensive today than yesterday by 0.125% to 0.250% in price.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

  • Durable Goods Orders for January - Orders for durable goods fell 5.2% in January - the 6th straight month orders fell - and is much worse than the 2.5% drop analysts were expecting. This follows a 4.6% drop in December. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for items expected to last three or more years. A decline that is larger than the 2.5% drop that is expected is considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. But it appears that this report is having no impact on the bond markets today.

  • Jobless Claims - Initial claims for unemployment jumped to 667,000 last week, the highest level since 1983, and is 42,000 more than what analysts predicted. Continuing claims for jobless benefits rose by 170,000 to 4.987 million. With more and more people unemployed, the threat of wage based inflation is subdued. This is considered positive news for bonds and MBS as employers do not have to pay higher wages to attract new employees during periods of high unemployment. But, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond markets.

  • New Home Sales - This report revealed that new home sales fell 10.2% in January to a much lower-than-expected annual rate of 309,000 units - a record low. The median price for a new home fell also fell sharply - new home prices dropped 9.9% in January to $201,100. This is good news for home buyers as home become more affordable.

    However, according to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, "Lower house prices and affordable mortgage rates have yet to spur housing demand."

    However, this data is also considered not to be of high importance to the bond markets.

  • Fed's MBS Purchase Program - The results of this past week's purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) by the Feds will be released in the afternoon. To date, the Feds have purchased over $134 billion in MBSs. The Feds plan on purchasing up to $500 billion in MBSs through June 30th.

Important News of the Day:

The President is proposing $750 billion in new aid to the financial industry. This new aid will be on top of the $700 billion rescue package that was approved by Congress last October. In addition, he is seeking $635 billion in spending on the health care system. According to his budget proposal, the President says this will bring the budget deficit to $1.75 trillion by the end of the fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2009.

There are six economic reports to be released this week that could potentially affect mortgage rates. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

High Volatility. Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets, and there's additional downward pressure on MBS prices again today (meaning higher rates). Also, the supply of T-bills on the market to pay for the massive debt obligations continues to weigh heavily on the market. I expect the markets will be more volatile the next couple of days.

If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

  • Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

RATE ALERT - February 25, 2009

Prices of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) and Treasury bonds continue to fall today.  Remember, as bond and MBS prices fall, yields and mortgage rates go up.

The government is selling a record $32 billion in 5 year notes today, and will be selling $22 billion in 7 year notes tomorrow.  As the government floods the market with more and more debt, we can expect to see a general pattern of lower prices and higher yields on bonds and in mortgage rates.

Usually if bond prices fall, stocks prices are going up (and as stock prices fall, bond prices go up). But that is not happening today. Both bond prices and stick prices are falling.  This means that investors are pulling their money out of the markets and will sit on the sidelines for a while until they hear better news.

So far today, the FNMA 30 Year 4.5% coupon is down 12/32. You can expect to see higher costs and/or rates for mortgages this afternoon.

The Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory - February 25, 2009

What the Markets Are Doing Today:

Both the bond market and Mortgage Backed Securities as well as the stock markets opened down in price today.  This is probably a negative reaction to the president's speech last night.  But it also could be because of the sale of even more government debt that is expected later today.

  • The Dow opened down 34 points from yesterday's close and is currently down 123 points
  • NASDAQ opened down 12 points from yesterday's close and is currently down 24 points
  • The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 11/32 from yesterday's close and is currently down 19/32
  • FNMA 30 Year Mortgage Backed Securities February 4.5 coupon opened down  1/32 from yesterday's close and currently down 6/32

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 4/32 from its opening yesterday morning, and is currently down another 6/32 this morning. I expect mortgage rates will most likely be a little more expensive today than yesterday by 0.125% to 0.250% in price.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

  • Existing Home Sales Report for January - The number of home sold in January fell far below than what analysts were expecting. There were 449,000 homes sold last month, and is a 5.2% drop from home sales in December. Analysts were expecting to see a 1.1% rise in home sales.  This means that the values of homes in most areas will continue to fall.

    There's an average 9.6 month supply of homes on the market. That means that if no more homes were brought onto the market, it will take 9.6 months to sell the current supply of available homes. It also means that we are still in a buyer's market. In addition, the average price of a single-family home in January was $212,400.

    This is one of two least important reports of the week, and it will not have much impact on bond or MBS prices or mortgage rates.

Important News of the Day:

The President gave a speech before Congress last night.  He did not provide any more details on how to improve the economy or resolve the mortgage mess.  I expect stock and bond traders are a little more than disappointed, and will be selling stocks and bonds today, which in turns means mortgage rates and/or pricing could be a little higher today.

The Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, will continue his testimony before Congress today. What he says or doesn't say and what he implies or doesn't imply could affect the markets either positively or negatively. (If that isn't a wishy-washy statement, I don't know what is!)  It all depends on what the investors want to hear, what they actually hear, and what they didn't hear.

There's another round of treasury auctions today.  That means the government will try and sell even more debt to the weary market. And as the supply of bonds to pay for the massive debt continues to grow, it will apply more downward pressure on MBS (meaning it forces bond price down which in turn drives yields up).  And because treasury bonds and MBSs are both fixed income investments, they tend to move in the same direction.  So keep an eye on the bond markets.  If bond prices drop, then you can expect the prices of MBSs to drop.  That will in turn lead to higher mortgage rates. 

There are six economic reports to be released this week that could potentially affect mortgage rates. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Moderate Volatility. Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets, and there's some downward pressure on MBS prices again today (meaning higher rates). I expect the markets will be more volatile the rest of the week.

If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

  • Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

The Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory - February 24, 2009

The Markets Today:

The bond market opened in negative territory before reversing course. Meanwhile Mortgage backed securities (MBS) opened in negative territory and has tried to recover a few times, but remains down for the day. The stock markets, on the other hand, opened in and stayed in positive territory today. This is on news that consumer confidence fell last month, and that the Fed expects it may take a couple of years before the economy fully recovers.

  • The Dow opened up 43 points from yesterday's close and is currently up 153 points
  • NASDAQ opened up 15 points from yesterday's close
  • The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 4/32 from yesterday's close and is currently up 6/32
  • FNMA 30 Year Mortgage Backed Securities February 4.5 coupon opened down  9/32 from yesterday's close and currently down 9/32

Remember, on MBS, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 3/32 from its opening on yesterday morning, and is currently down 3/32 this morning. I expect mortgage rates will most likely remain unchanged from yesterday.

Economic Reports for Today:

  • Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February - The report released by the Conference Board showed a reading of 25.0, an all-time low. This shows that consumers are still concerned about their jobs and their overall financial situations. This means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, and will limit economic growth. This is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

News for Today:

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Senate Banking Committee on the status of the economy. Mr. Bernanke stated that he's optimistic that the recession would end later this year, but financial stability must be restored in order for the economy to recover. He also testified that it could take another two to three years for the economy to fully recover from the current recession.

There are six economic reports to be released this week that could potentially affect mortgage rates. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

Rate Volatility Index for Today:

Moderate Volatility. Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets, and there's some upward pressure on mortgage rates again today, with increasingly higher volatility the remainder of the week.

If you haven't locked in yet, then I suggest that you continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could have an adverse affect on mortgage rates. If you like the rate that you are currently being offered, and if at that rate you are saving a considerable amount of money on your monthly mortgage payments, then there is nothing wrong with locking in.

My Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

  • Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

Interest rates are based on numerous economic, financial and credit based factors that adjust daily. In addition, lenders can vary on the qualification requirements from mortgage program to mortgage program. If you like the rate today, then the safe bet is to lock in. Even if rates improve, most likely they won't improve enough in the short term to make you cry about it. But if you are an ardent market bear and believe that we'll keep hearing more bad economic for a while, and you have the money to risk, then you may benefit from floating. Just remember, it always seems more painful to have not locked when you should have as opposed to locking in now and watching rates get a little better.

Mortgage Market Update - February 23, 2009

Prices of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) and Treasuries eventually reversed course this morning after initially falling in early morning trading as investors await new news on the government's bank bailout and mortgage rescue plans.

The U.S. will sell a record $94 billion worth of T-bills this week. Additionally, the government has pledged more funds to prevent the collapse of major banks. This will lead to the sale of more T-bills, and the increased supply is already putting an upward pressure on interest rates. So far, $9.7 trillion has been earmarked to combat the financial crisis, and that will probably lead the government to borrowing $2.5 trillion this fiscal year.

The Treasury auctions, Ben Bernacke's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, as well as any new information about government bailout programs will have a major impact on the mortgage market this week.

The Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory - February 23, 2009

My Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

  • Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

Interest rates are based on numerous economic, financial and credit based factors that adjust daily. In addition, lenders can vary on the qualification requirements from mortgage program to mortgage program. If you like the rate today, then the safe bet is to lock in. Even if rates improve, most likely they won't improve enough in the short term to make you cry about it. But if you are an ardent market bear and believe that we'll keep hearing more bad economic for a while, and you have the money to risk, then you may benefit from floating. Just remember, it always seems more painful to have not locked when you should have as opposed to locking in now and watching rates get a little better.

Mortgage Market Update - February 18, 2009

Prices of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) and Treasuries fell this morning despite gloomy economic news. The run up in MBS prices could be due to some profit taking (rates higher) by traders as well as due to the glut of Treasuries on the market. The Feds are learning that there aren't as many takers as they had hoped to buy Treasuries to help finance the massive government debt.

In other news, the president announced a Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. Basically, the plan is a massive foreclosure prevention program that will help stabilize the housing market and keep people in their homes. The details of the plan are not yet finalized and will not be announced until March 4th.

The Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory - February 18, 2009

The Markets Today:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) and the bond market opened in negative territory despite the release of weaker than expected economic news. Meanwhile the stock markets are trading in positive territory today.

  • The Dow opened down 16 points from yesterday's close and is currently up 48 points
  • NASDAQ opened down 3 points from yesterday's close and is currently up 12 points
  • The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 1/32 from yesterday's close and is currently down 9/32
  • FNMA 30 Year Mortgage Backed Securities February 4.5 coupon opened up  3/32 from yesterday's close and is currently down 4/32

Remember, on MBS, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 12/32 yesterday and is now down 4/32 this morning. I expect mortgage rates to be worse by 0.125% - 0.25% in discount points today.

Economic Reports for Today:

  • January's Housing Starts - This report will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. New housing starts declined almost 17% in January to an annual rate of 466,000 - another record low. This indicates that the housing market has not bottomed out yet. This is considered good news for bonds because weak housing helps support a theory of a weakening economy.

    New home builders are struggling as more foreclosures increase the supply of homes for sale. "The problem with the build-up in inventory is coming from the increasing number of foreclosures," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, MA. "It's about time the government intervened so directly in the problem."
  • January's Industrial Production Data - This report gives us a measure of the strength of the manufacturing sector by tracking output at U.S. factories. The report revealed a 2.0% drop in manufacturing output in January, and is more than expected. Analysts were expected a drop of 1.5%. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is still slowing, and is another positive indicator for bonds and mortgage rates.
  • The Minutes from the Last FOMC Meeting - Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move concerning monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM EST; therefore, any reaction will come during late afternoon trading. With little likelihood of the Fed making a change to the key short-term rates anytime soon, these minutes won't heavily influence trading or lead to a change in mortgage rates.

News for Today:

The president announced a $275 billion plan to bail out homeowners who are struggling with their mortgage payments. According to a White House fact sheet, the plan is to help as many as 5 million homeowners refinance loans that are owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"It will give millions of families resigned to financial ruin a chance to rebuild," Obama said in remarks prepared for delivery at 10:15 a.m. in Mesa, Arizona. "By bringing down the foreclosure rate, it will help to shore up housing prices for everyone."

Obama also said that he will support revamping bankruptcy rules to allow judges to reduce mortgage balances on primary owner-occupied homes to fair- market value - as long as borrowers pay their debts under a court-ordered plan. Under the plan, homeowners will be eligible for $1,000 a year for 5 years if they make their mortgage payments on time.

There are five economic reports to be released this week that could potentially affect mortgage rates. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

Rate Volatility Index for Today:

Moderate Volatility. Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets, and there's some upward pressure on mortgage rates again today.

If you haven't locked in yet, then I suggest that you continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could have an adverse affect on mortgage rates. If you like the rate that you are currently being offered, and if at that rate you are saving a considerable amount of money on your monthly mortgage payments, then there is nothing wrong with locking in.

My Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

  • Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
  • Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

Interest rates are based on numerous economic, financial and credit based factors that adjust daily. In addition, lenders can vary on the qualification requirements from mortgage program to mortgage program. If you like the rate today, then the safe bet is to lock in. Even if rates improve, most likely they won't improve enough in the short term to make you cry about it. But if you are an ardent market bear and believe that we'll keep hearing more bad economic for a while, and you have the money to risk, then you may benefit from floating. Just remember, it always seems more painful to have not locked when you should have as opposed to locking in now and watching rates get a little better.

Mortgage Market Update - February 17, 2009

Prices of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) and Treasuries rose this morning as stocks fell dramatically as economic news dominated the markets. It appears that after the release of discouraging economic news, investors sought the safety of treasury bonds. 

There is renewed concern that the global economic downturn is getting worse. The NY Empire State Index showed manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace on record due to the lack of credit. Slumping retail sales are prompting companies to cut production and slash jobs, signaling the recession is intensifying.

In other news, the president signed the $787 billion stimulus bill into law today. The First-Time homebuyer tax credit of $8000 was implemented, and is retroactive to January 1, 2009. To qualify for the tax credit, neither spouse can have owned a home anytime in the last 3 years. The home they are purchasing must be their primary residence. The tax credit will be $8,000 or 10% of the purchase price, whichever is less. If the homeowner sells his or her home anytime in the first 3 years, then the full amount of the credit is due upon sale. There are income limitations as well. To get the full tax credit, your adjusted gross income must be less then $75,000 if single, and less then $150,000 if married. This tax credit is phased out for incomes above $95,000 if single and $170,000 if married.