Mortgage Rate Forecast: April 2009

What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond and Mortgage Backed Securities opened in slightly positive territory while the stock markets opened in negative territory again this morning despite a stronger than expected economic report.

• The Dow opened down 71 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened down 15 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 10/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon up 3/32 from yesterday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 18/32 from its opening yesterday and is currently flat against yesterday's close. I expect that today's mortgage rates will improve by 0.125 - 0.25 in discount points today.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April - According to the Conference Board, the CCI for April jumped to 39.2. This is a much stronger than the 29.9 reading that was expected. That indicates that consumers were much more optimistic about their own personal financial situations than many previously thought. A higher level of confidence means that consumers are much more likely to make larger purchases in the near future. This morning's report had a slight negative impact on the bond markets.

Important News of the Day:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins today and will adjourn early tomorrow afternoon. Analysts do not expect any change in the key short-term interest rates. However, we may see some volatility in the markets following the ost-meeting press release at 2:15 PM ET.

This week will be very active in terms of economic releases scheduled for release for the remaining days of the week - including another FOMC meeting. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Moderate Volatility. Look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as well as the adjournment of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We may also see noticeable changes in mortgage rates tomorrow and Friday. If the reports being released this week reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond markets may rally and mortgage rates could fall.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage rates at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond and Mortgage Backed Securities opened in slightly positive territory while the stock markets opened in negative territory this morning following news of a swine flu outbreak in New York.

• The Dow opened down 85 points from Friday's close
• NASDAQ opened down 23 points from Friday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 14/32 from Friday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon up 3/32 from Friday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 1/32 from its opening on Friday. I expect that today's mortgage rates will remain about the same again today as Friday's close.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

Important News of the Day:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) prices are higher (rates lower) as investors are concerned about the administration's suggestion that the economy will continue to contract in the coming months.

There is a 2yr note auction early this afternoon. Traders will be watching for any changes in demand or reduced purchases by foreign central banks such as China. The Fed is also prepared to purchase Treasuries today as part of its plans to reduce borrowing costs.

This week will be very active in terms of economic releases scheduled for release for the remaining days of the week - including another FOMC meeting. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Moderate Volatility. Look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as well as the adjournment of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We may also see noticeable changes in mortgage rates tomorrow and Friday. If the reports being released this week reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond markets may rally and mortgage rates could fall.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond and Mortgage Backed Securities opened in slightly negative territory while the stock markets opened in positive territory this morning after the release of better than expected economic news.

• The Dow opened up 48 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened up 10 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 10/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon down 3/32 from yesterday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 6/32 from its opening yesterday. I expected that today's mortgage rates will remain the same again today as yesterday's close

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• Durable Goods Orders for March - The Commerce Department reported that new orders for durable goods fell 0.8% last month, which is better than what analysts predicted. Analysts were expecting a 1.5% drop in durable goods orders. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. The data could lead to a rise in stock prices and a drop in bond prices, and that could lead to higher mortgage rates.
  
• New Homes Sales for March - This report showed little change in sales of newly constructed homes between February and March. There are signs that sales of new home may have hit bottom as buyer traffic is increasing and mortgage rates are extremely low. Also, homebuilders appear to be offering huge discounts. While this report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, it won't have any impact on the bond markets or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts.

Important News of the Day:

It appears that while activity was higher than previously thought in February, there is little change from those higher levels in March. While it's too soon to tell, it appears that these sectors are beginning to stabilize. We'll know better next month.

Next week will be very active in terms of economic releases scheduled for release. None of them are due for Monday, but there is important data scheduled for the remaining days of the week - including another FOMC meeting. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch on Monday.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Light Volatility. Overall, it should be a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates. Look for Friday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods Order report being posted. The remainder of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the stock markets rally this week, bonds and MBSs will most likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. On the other hand, if stocks fall during the week, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond market opened in slightly territory while the stock markets opened is positive territory this morning. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Backed Securities market opened flat again this morning.

• The Dow opened up 10 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened up 4 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 6/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon opened flat

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 1/32 from its opening yesterday. I expected that today's mortgage rates will remain the same again today as yesterday's close

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• Existing Homes Sales for March - The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales fell 3% last month. This decline was larger than expected, and indicates that the housing sector is not ready to rebound yet. This is considered good news for bonds, but this data is not considered to be a highly important to the markets. Therefore, the results will not have an impact on this morning's mortgage rates.
  
• Jobless Claims - There were 640,000 new claims for unemployment last week. This nearly matched what analysts forecasted, so this will have little impact on this morning's bond trading and mortgage rates.
  
  However, continuing claims for unemployment continue to rise and jumped again to another record to 6.02 million. This indicates that it's taking more time for the jobless to find work. With more people unemployed, the threat of wage based inflation is subdued. Employers do not have to pay higher wages to attract new employees during high unemployment times as people will be happy just to have a job. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond or the mortgage backed securities markets.
  
• Fed's MBS Purchase Program - The results of this week's purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBSs) by the Feds will be released in the afternoon. To date, the Feds have purchased over $355 billion in MBSs. The Feds plan on purchasing up to $1.25 trillion in MBSs through December 31st.

Important News of the Day:

This week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. The Durable Goods Order report, which is being posted on Friday, is the only report of high importance being released this week. The LEI report released earlier today is of moderate importance. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Light Volatility. Overall, it should be a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates. Look for Friday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods Order report being posted. The remainder of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the stock markets rally this week, bonds and MBSs will most likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. On the other hand, if stocks fall during the week, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond and stock markets has opened in slightly territory while the Mortgage Backed Securities market opened flat this morning. There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today.

• The Dow opened down 71 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened down 18 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 1/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon opened flat

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 3/32 from its opening yesterday. I expected that today's mortgage rates will remain the same as yesterday's close

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

Important News of the Day:

This week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. The Durable Goods Order report, which is being posted on Friday, is the only report of high importance being released this week. The LEI report released earlier today is of moderate importance. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Light Volatility. Overall, it should be a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates. Look for Friday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods Order report being posted. The remainder of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the stock markets rally this week, bonds and MBSs will most likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. On the other hand, if stocks fall during the week, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

Bonds and mortgage backed securities opened in positive territory while the stock markets opened in negative territory this morning.

• The Dow opened down 39 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened down 8 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 4/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon opened up 3/32 from yesterday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 10/32 from its opening yesterday, and was up as much as 5/32 in trading this morning. I expected that today's mortgage rates will improve by 0.125% - 0.25% in discount points this morning. However, Secretary of the Treasure Timothy Geithner testified before Congress this morning. Upon his testimony, bonds, mortgage backed securities and stocks all reversed course. Bonds are now down and stocks are now up.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

Important News of the Day:

Secretary of the Treasure Timothy Geithner testified before Congress this morning. He stated that most banks now have more capital than they need. He added that the increased liquidity that was pumped into the toxic debt market is helping to determine values for illiquid securities. He also stated that the Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP) still has $109 billion available, and that about $25 billion should be repaid this year.

This week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. The Durable Goods Order report, which is being posted on Friday, is the only report of high importance being released this week. The LEI report released yesterday was of moderate importance. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Light Volatility. Overall, it should be a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates. Look for Friday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods Order report being posted. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the stock markets rally this week, bonds and MBSs will most likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. On the other hand, if stocks fall during the week, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond market well into positive territory while Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) opened flat in morning trading. Meanwhile, the stock markets opened in negative territory.

• The Dow opened down 130 points from Friday's close
• NASDAQ opened down 32 points from Friday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 18/32 from Friday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon opened flat from Friday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 11/32 from its opening on Friday, but is currently up 8/32 in trading this morning. I expect that today's mortgage rates will the same as the close on Friday, but may improve by 0.125% in discount points this afternoon.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March - Released by the Conference Board, this data attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. The report showed a decline of 0.3% - and came in as analysts expected. This indicates that there is no improvement in the overall economy. On the news, prices MBSs moved higher, and mortgage rates may fall slightly this afternoon. This is considered to be a moderately important report, so we may see a slight movement in mortgage rates as a result of this report.

Important News of the Day:

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be making a speech today, but it's not likely to affect the markets or mortgage rates.

This week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. The Durable Goods Order report, which is being posted on Friday, is the only report of high importance being released this week. The LEI report released earlier today is of moderate importance. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Light Volatility. Overall, it should be a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates. Look for Friday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods Order report being posted. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the stock markets rally this week, bonds and MBSs will most likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. On the other hand, if stocks fall during the week, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond market opened in negative territory again this morning while stocks opened in mixed territory following a stronger than expected consumer sentiment report

• The Dow opened up 30 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened down 6 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 8/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon down 2/32 from yesterday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 22/32 from its opening yesterday, and is down 2/32 in trading this morning. I expect that today's mortgage rates will worsen in pricing by 0.125% to 0.25% in discount points this morning.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment - The consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. Today's release revealed a reading of 61.9, which is more than a reading of 58.5 that analysts were expecting. While this report does not normally have an impact on the markets, it does indicate that consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations than some had previously thought. That can be considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates because it means that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future.

Important News of the Day:

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be making a speech today, but it's not likely to affect the markets or mortgage rates.

Next week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. Only one of the reports can be considered of high importance, and that is the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March which will be posted on Monday. The LEI attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months, but is thought of as only a moderately important report. Look for more details on this next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch on Monday.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Moderate Volatility. We have a very active week ahead of us, so please proceed cautiously if you're still floating an interest rate. Overall, look for the most movement in rates the middle part of the week. The Retail Sales, PPI and CPI reports are the most important economic reports being released this week. Any of the three reports can cause significant movement in the markets and mortgage rates.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond market opened in negative territory while stocks opened in positive territory this morning following a rally in the stock markets late yesterday afernoon.

• The Dow opened up 36 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened up 17 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened down 5/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon down 1/32 from yesterday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 8/32 from its opening yesterday, but is down 2/32 in trading this morning. I expect that today's mortgage rates will remain the same as they were at yesterday's close.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• New Housing Starts Report for March - New Housing Starts for March came in much less then expected. New permits, which are pulled prior to construction starting, also fell much more than thought. This indicating that the new home part of the housing sector still remains weak. While this is good news for bonds, its impact on today's trading and mortgage rates has been minimal because this data is not considered to be one of the more important reports we see each month.
  
  
• Jobless Claims - 610,000 new claims for unemployment were filed last week, and is much lower than the 658,000 analysts predicted. However, the level of new claims filed has been moving slowly upwards for the past 20 weeks. This indicates that it's taking more time for the jobless to find work. With more people unemployed, the threat of wage based inflation is subdued. Employers do not have to pay higher wages to attract new employees during high unemployment times as people will be happy just to have a job. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond or the mortgage backed securities markets.
  
  
• Fed's MBS Purchase Program - The results of this week's purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBSs) by the Feds will be released in the afternoon. To date, the Feds have purchased over $334 billion in MBSs. The Feds plan on purchasing up to $1.25 trillion in MBSs through December 31st.

Important News of the Day:

The Beige Book report that was released yesterday afternoon didn't reveal any surprises. The report showed that many districts reported stabilizing in some economic indicators. This could be translated to mean that economic activity may begin to strengthen in the near future. However, it is too soon to make that prediction. The report did indicate a continuing a weak labor sector, and that will make an economic recovery more difficult in the near term.

Look for more details on this next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Moderate Volatility. We have a very active week ahead of us, so please proceed cautiously if you're still floating an interest rate. Overall, look for the most movement in rates the middle part of the week. The Retail Sales, PPI and CPI reports are the most important economic reports being released this week. Any of the three reports can cause significant movement in the markets and mortgage rates.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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What the Markets Are Doing Today:

The bond market opened up slightly while stocks opened down this morning on worse than expected economic news.

• The Dow opened down 39 points from yesterday's close
• NASDAQ opened down 16 points from yesterday's close
• The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 3/32 from yesterday's close
• FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon up 1/32 from yesterday's close

Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed up 22/32 from its opening yesterday, and is up 1/32 in trading this morning. I expect that today's mortgage rates will improve by 0.125 to 0.25 in discount points today.

Economic Reports Being Released Today:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March revealed a 0.1% decline in the overall reading - which was weaker than expect - and a 0.2% increase in the core data - which is slightly better than expected. This indicates that when excluding the volatile food and energy costs, prices at the consumer level of the economy rose slightly more than thought. This is normally considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates, but the market is not reacting to the report.
  
  
• Industrial Production Report for March - The Industrial Production Report for March revealed a much larger slowdown in production than analysts had forecasted. The report showed a 1.5% drop in industrial output - economists were expecting a 0.9% decline. This means that production at factories, mines and utilities slowed much more than many had predicted. This is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a slowing manufacturing activity indicates a weaker economy.
  
  
• Fed Beige Book Report -The Federal Reserve will post its Fed Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. Because the Fed relies heavily on it during their FOMC meetings, its results can have an impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any surprises.

Important News of the Day:

Look for more details on this next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.

What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:

Moderate Volatility. We have a very active week ahead of us, so please proceed cautiously if you're still floating an interest rate. Overall, look for the most movement in rates the middle part of the week. The Retail Sales, PPI and CPI reports are the most important economic reports being released this week. Any of the three reports can cause significant movement in the markets and mortgage rates.

There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.

No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.

My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
• Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
• Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.

---

	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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