Mortgage Rate Forecast: August 2009

The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 28, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened down 3/32 this morning to 100.02.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed down 6/32 from its close yesterday 100.13 (as shown by the white line). MBS was down most of the morning, but is now trading up 1/32 at 100.16 (as shown by the blue line). Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. I expect that mortgage interest rates will be 0.125% - 0.25% worse in price this morning as compared to yesterday, but may improve this afternoon.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• Personal Income and Outlays Report for July - The revealed that personal income was unchanged from July. Analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. The core price index was also flat in July. Spending increased only 0.2% from the previous month, a little less than the 0.3% increase that was expected. Personal income is down 2.4% year-to-year while spending is up 1.1% in the same period. The report measures income and the consumer's ability to spend as well as their current spending habits. Today's report also reveals that inflation is not yet a concern. As the numbers came in less than expected, it would normally lead to higher prices of mortgage backed securities which in turn leads to lower mortgage interest rates. However, it appears that the Personal Income and Outlays Report had a negative impact on the mortgage market today (lower prices and higher yields and mortgage interest rates).
  
  
• August Revision to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment - The index revealed a reading of 65.7, better than analysts expectations of a 64.0 reading, and is an increase from the 63.2 reading in July. This indicates that consumers are more optimistic about their personal financial situations than previously thought. Normally, that would lead to lower prices of mortgage backed securities and higher mortgage interest rates. Instead, the inverse happened - the report led to higher prices and lower mortgage interest rates this morning. Go figure.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

There are several important economic reports as well as the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee scheduled for release next week that could have an impact on the mortgage market. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog on Monday.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past several weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. It appears that the 5.0% mark is about as low as it will go. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It also appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing right around the 5.0% - 5.25% mark as investors begin to realize the recession is not quite over yet. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits.

So, ask yourself this question: "Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse?" If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 27, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened down 2/32 this morning to 100.25.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed unchanged yesterday from its close the previous day at 100.31 (as shown by the white line). MBS is currently trading down 4/32 at 100.19 (as shown by the blue line). Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. I expect that mortgage interest rates will be up to 0.125% worse in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• First Revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - There was a 1.0% decline in the GDP in the 2^nd quarter, a little less than the 1.5% decline that analysts expected. This indicates that the economy is not as weak as analysts thought. This is considered negative news for bonds (prices rise and yields fall) as the decline was not as bad as predicated, and caused mortgage interest rates to be 0.125% worse in price this morning.
  
  
• Jobless Claims - There were 570,000 new claims filed for unemployment last week, about as analysts predicted. There were 576,000 new claims filed the previous week. The four-week average is steady at 566,250 while continuing claims for unemployment decreased last week to 6.133 million. This indicates that it's still taking time for the jobless to find work, with some are either finding work or have exhausting their unemployment benefits. With the high rate of people unemployed, the threat of wage based inflation remains subdued. Employers do not have to pay higher wages to attract new employees during high unemployment times as people will be happy just to have a job. This data is usually not considered to be very important to the mortgage market.
  
  
• Fed's MBS Purchase Program - The results of this week's purchases of mortgage backed securities by the Feds will be released in the afternoon. As of last Thursday, the Feds have purchased over $766 billion in mortgage backed securities this year. The Feds plan on purchasing up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage backed securities through December 31st.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

The results of the 7-Year Note auction will be posted at 1 pm EDST today. If investor interest is strong, it should lead to higher prices of mortgage backed securities which in turn will lead to lower mortgage interest rates. However, a lackluster demand could lead to the selling of mortgage backed securities and higher mortgage interest rates this afternoon.

There are six relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week that could have an impact on the mortgage market. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, look for Tuesday to be the busiest day of the week with the release of the Producer Price Index. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and heading a little lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not quite over yet. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits.

So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse? If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 26, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened down 1/32 this morning to 100.28.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed up 5/32 yesterday to 100.31 (as shown by the white line). Mortgage interest rates essentially remained the same in price today as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• Durable Goods Orders for July - The Commerce Department report revealed a 4.9% increase in orders for big-ticket products, much greater than the 2.5% increase analysts expected, and a large increase over the revised 2.2% decline in June. This report provides us with an important measure of strength or weakness in the manufacturing sector, and tracks orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items - products that are expected to last three or more years.
  
  A much stronger than expected reading indicates that the manufacturing sector is improving. It also shows that the economy is recovering from the recession. While this would normally drive prices of mortgage backed securities lower which in turn would lead to higher mortgage interest rates, it appears to have no effect on the mortgage market today.
• New Home Sales for July - There were 433,000 new home sales in July, a 9.6% increase from the 384,000 new home sales in June. Analysts expected the report to show 390,000 new home sales in July. But, this report tracks only about 15% of all home sales. As such, this report usually is not considered to be very important to the mortgage market.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

The results of the 5-Year Note auction will be posted at 1 pm EDST today. If investor interest is strong, it should lead to higher prices of mortgage backed securities which in turn will lead to lower mortgage interest rates. However, a lackluster demand could lead to the selling of mortgage backed securities and higher mortgage interest rates this afternoon.

There are six relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week that could have an impact on the mortgage market. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, look for Tuesday to be the busiest day of the week with the release of the Producer Price Index. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and heading a little lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not quite over yet. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits.

So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse? If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 25, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened up 1/32 this morning to 100.19 before reversing course on the release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, and on the news of Ben Bernanke's nomination to serve a 2nd term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed up 13/32 yesterday to 100.16 (as shown by the white line). MBS is currently down 5/32 to 100.00. Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. I expect that mortgage interest rates will essentially be the same in price today as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August - The CCI rose more than 7 points to 54.1 this month, well above the 48.0 reading that was expected, and is an increase from July's reading of 46.6. This index measures consumer sentiment about their own financial situations, and provides us a measurement of their willingness to spend. That is important because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy. An increase in the CCI indicates that consumers would more likely make large purchases in the immediate future. It appears that this report had little or no affect on the mortgage market today while the price of the 10-Year bond declined (higher yields) and the Dow moved higher.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Ben Bernanke was nominated today to serve a 2nd 4-year term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve to begin January 31, 2010. His reappointment requires the approval of the Senate.

Home prices in 20 major cities across the U.S. fell less in June than predicted. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 15.4% from a year ago, less than the 16.4% decline that analysts forecasted, and is less than the 17.0% decline reported in May. It's also the smallest decline in housing prices since April of 2008. This report indicates that the decline in housing prices appears to be moderating.

The results of the 2-Year Note auction will be posted at 1 pm EST today. If investor interest is strong, it should lead to higher prices of mortgage backed securities which in turn will lead to lower mortgage interest rates. However, a lackluster demand could lead to the selling of mortgage backed securities and higher mortgage interest rates this afternoon.

There are six relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week that could have an impact on the mortgage market. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, look for Tuesday to be the busiest day of the week with the release of the Producer Price Index. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and heading a little lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not quite over yet. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits.

So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse? If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 24, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened up 3/32 this morning to 99.88 before continuing the sell-off that started on Friday.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed down 19/32 on Friday to 99.78 (as shown by the white line), and closed down 16/32 for the week. MBS is currently trading down 2/32 at 99.72 (as shown by the blue line). Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. I expect that mortgage interest rates will be 0.125% - 0.25% worse in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

There are no economic reports or news expected to be released today. So, look for the mortgage market and mortgage interest rates to be heavily influenced by the stock markets today.

There are six relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week that could have an impact on the mortgage market. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

Recent Mortgage Interest Rate Activity:

The chart below shows the upward trend in the price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% coupon over the past two weeks:

The graph below shows the upward trend in the price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% coupon over the past 30 days (white line) as well as its 30 day moving average (green line):

Remember - as the prices of mortgage backed securities goes up, the yields come down - and mortgage interest rates come down with it.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, look for Tuesday to be the busiest day of the week with the release of the Producer Price Index. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and are heading lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not yet over. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits. So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse?

If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 20, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened down 2/32 this morning to 100.06.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed up 10/32 yesterday to 100.13 (as shown by the white line). MBS is currently up 2/32 to 100.19. Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and mortgage interest rates come down with it. I expect that mortgage interest rates will essentially be the same in price today as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July - The Conference Board revealed a 0.6% increase in the LEI, slightly less than the 0.7% increase analysts expected. The index attempts to measure the potential for economic growth over the next few months. The index has risen three months in a row with the latest month, June, posting a 0.7% gain. Because this reading almost matched forecasts, it had little impact on mortgage interest rates this morning.
  
  
• Jobless Claims -576,000 new claims for unemployment were filed last week, much more than the 550,000 new claims that analysts predicted. Continuing claims for unemployment increased slightly to 6.241 million. This indicates that it's still taking time for the jobless to find work, with some are either finding work or have exhausting their unemployment benefits. With the high rate of people unemployed, the threat of wage based inflation remains subdued. Employers do not have to pay higher wages to attract new employees during high unemployment times as people will be happy just to have a job. This data is usually not considered to be very important to the mortgage market and had no impact on mortgage interest rates this morning.
  
  
• Fed's MBS Purchase Program - The results of this week's purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBSs) by the Feds will be released in the afternoon. As of last Thursday, the Feds have purchased over $741 billion in MBSs this year. The Feds plan on purchasing up to $1.25 trillion in MBSs through December 31st.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

The Philadelphia Fed index reported a reading of 4.2 for August, up from a -7.5 reading in July. Any reading over 0.0 is considered an expansion. The is the first expansion in almost a year.

There are only a few economic reports scheduled for release this week. We'll have the Existing Home Sales report on Friday. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, mortgage backed securities will likely be influenced mostly by stock prices - which may be quite volatile - and the 10-year Treasury yield for the rest of the week. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and are heading lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not yet over. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits. So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse?

If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 19, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened up 11/32 this morning to 100.16.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed down 12/32 yesterday to 99.84 (as shown by the white line). MBS is currently up 11/32 to 100.16. Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and mortgage interest rates come down with it. I expect that mortgage interest rates will be 0.125% - 0.375% better in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

China's stock market - the Shanghai Composite Index - briefly fell 5.1% overnight. The index has fallen more than 20% since peaking for the year on August 4th - just 2 weeks ago - and has fallen more than 70% since October 2007. The drop in China's index has triggered declines in stock and commodities markets worldwide. As a result, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to its lowest level since July 14th.

There are only a few economic reports scheduled for release this week. We'll have the Existing Home Sales report on Friday. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, mortgage backed securities will likely be influenced mostly by stock prices - which may be quite volatile - and the 10-year Treasury yield for the rest of the week. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and are heading lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not yet over. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits. So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse?

If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 18, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened down 5/32 this morning to 100.03 as European stocks and U.S. futures rallied on a better than expected consumer confidence report in Germany.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed up 8/32 yesterday to 100.22 (as shown by the white line). MBS is currently down 1/32 to 100.16. Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. I expect that mortgage interest rates will be 0.0% - 0.125% worse in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• Housing Starts for July - Housing starts tumbled 1.0% last month to an annualized rate of 581,000. Analysts were expecting the report to show a 2.8% annualized increase in the construction starts of new homes to 605,000. In June, housing starts increased at an annualized rate of 3.6%, and followed a huge annualized increase of 17.3% in May. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. The lower the number of starts indicates the housing sector is still struggling. However, this report isn't considered to be of high importance to the mortgage market.
  
  
• Producer Price Index (PPI) for July - Producer's wholesale prices fell 0.9% last month, while core data prices fell 0.1%. Analysts expected to see a 0.3% decline in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. The decline in July was due primary to decreases in food prices (down 1.5%) and energy costs (overall down 2.4%). The price of home heating oil fell 10.2% while gasoline prices rose 3.3%. As a comparison, the overall index was up 1.8% in June due to higher energy costs, and followed a 0.2% increase in May. The core data increased 0.5% in June.
  
  The report gives us an indication of inflation at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices that can change significantly from month to month. A smaller than expected increase in the core data is considered good news for the mortgage market, but because of this morning's consumer confidence report in Germany, it didn't cause much movement in mortgage interest rates.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Global stocks are improving today on news of growing consumer confidence in Germany. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research index rose to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July, exceeding analyst expectations of a reading of 45.0.

Home Depot Inc. and Target Corp. reported better than expected earnings for the 2nd quarter.

Recent talk that China will retreat as the largest foreign holder of US debt seems to be premature. China has recently purchased a small amount of mortgage backed securities, thus adding to the consensus that the US housing sector is about to recover. More importantly, however, the quality of new mortgages is the best we've seen in years, and their rates are better than that of US Treasuries. In addition, mortgage backed securities are essentially guaranteed by the US government.

There are only a few economic reports scheduled for release this week. We'll have the the Existing Home Sales report on Friday. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, look for Tuesday to be the busiest day of the week with the release of the Producer Price Index. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and are heading lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not yet over. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits. So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse?

If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 17, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened up 8/32 this morning to 100.22 following a huge sell-off in the global stock markets.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed up 8/32 on Friday to 99.97 (as shown by the white line), and closed up 54/32 (1 22/32) for the week. MBS is currently trading up 7/32 at 100.19 (as shown by the blue line). Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and mortgage interest rates come down with it. I expect that mortgage interest rates will be 0% - 0.25% better in price this morning as compared to the close on Friday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

It appears that the long awaited correction in the stock markets has arrived. Last week, the Dow saw its first weekly decline in a month. And, U.S. stock markets opened down sharply this morning following losses in the Asian and European stock markets as investors flocked to the safety of bonds and mortgage backed securities.

There are only a few economic reports scheduled for release this week. We'll have the Producer Price Index and Housing Starts reports tomorrow, and the Existing Home Sales report on Friday. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog.

Recent Mortgage Interest Rate Activity:

The chart below shows the upward trend in the price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% coupon over the past two weeks:

The graph below shows the upward trend in the price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% coupon over the past 30 days (white line) as well as its 30 day moving average (green line):

Remember - as the prices of mortgage backed securities goes up, the yields come down - and mortgage interest rates come down with it.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, look for Tuesday to be the busiest day of the week with the release of the Producer Price Index. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. So, if you're floating your mortgage interest rate, please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

It appears that mortgage interest rates are stabilizing and are heading lower - at least for now - as investors begin to realize the recession is not yet over. However, you can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession, while not over, appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining in some areas, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the rate of job loss has stabilized and may be slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits. So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse?

If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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The Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advisory for August 14, 2009

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage interest rates today in Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire.

What the Mortgage Backed Securities Market is Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened up 1/32 this morning to 99.75.

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon closed up 18/32 yesterday to 99.73 (as shown by the white line). MBS is currently trading up 12/32 at 100.09 (as shown by the blue line). Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and mortgage interest rates come down with it. I expect that mortgage interest rates will be 0.125% - 0.375% better in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Economic Reports Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July - the CPI came in flat in the overall index, and increased 0.1% in the core data - slightly less than expected. Analysts expected to see a 0.1% increase in the overall index, and a 0.2% increase in the core data reading. In the previous month, we saw a 0.7% increase in the overall index, and a 0.2% increase in the core data reading. Year-over-year, the CPI dropped 2.1% - the largest decline since January 1950. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month as it measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. As the readings came in slightly less than expected reading and is down from the previous month, there's less inflationary pressure at the consumer level. The report was favorable to the mortgage backed securities market and led to lower mortgage interest rates this morning.
  
  
• Industrial Production Report for July - The report revealed a 0.5% increase in production last month - the first increase in 9 months - is slightly less than the 0.6% increase that was expected, and follows a 0.4% decline in June. The biggest gainers were auto manufacturers who have finished retooling for the new model year and are now making up for declining inventories. The federal government's "cash for clinkers" program has also helped spur auto sales. As this report came in essentially as expected, it did not add much to the movement in mortgage interest rates.
  
  
• University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for August - We saw a reading of 63.2 this morning, the lowest level since March, is much lower than the 68.5 reading analysts were expecting, and is a decrease over the 66.0 reading in July. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases which in turns fuels economic growth. The lower reading indicates that consumer confidence is falling, and spending is likely to decrease. This reading also helped bring about lower mortgage interest rates this morning.

News and Events That Could Affect Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

The 30-year Bond auction went fairly well yesterday, which led to lower mortgage interest rates yesterday afternoon.

The Feds also reported yesterday that they have purchase $741.6 billion in mortgage backed securities so far this year. They are almost 60% of their way through the $1.25 trillion that they've allocated for the program.

In other news, Mohammad El Arian, the CEO of PIMCO, a leading global investment management firm, appeared on CNBC this morning warning that the recent rally in the stock markets has outpaced the economy. He believes that consumers and the increasing problems in the residential and commercial real estate markets are still major drags on the economy.

David Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., said that U.S. stocks are "dramatically overpriced." In an interview with Bloomberg Television. Tice said "I'd love for prosperity to return. Unfortunately, I think you need to be realistic, and it takes time to work off these excesses from a bubble in credit markets."

Charles Knott, chief investment officer at Knott Capital Management in Exton, Pennsylvania, added that "a lot of people think the market has come up more than enough and it needs to rest. We've got a pretty sobering outlook and are concerned about the economy on a long-term basis. We think there's neither the willpower nor the means to fully finance that type of V-shape recovery."

There are only a few economic reports scheduled for release next week. We'll have the Producer Price Index and Housing Starts reports on Tuesday, and the Existing Home Sales report on Friday. Look for more details on next week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch at www.LewCorcoran.com/MyBlog on Monday.

What's Happening With Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Moderate to High Volatility. Overall, look for the most movement in bond prices and mortgage interest rates today. If you're still floating your rate, please act accordingly and maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If you're waiting and hoping the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate will dip below 5.0% (at no points) again, I want you to know that, while not impossible, and as the past few weeks have proven, it's becoming increasingly unlikely. The apparent theme indicates the recession is over (or at least has hit bottom), and markets are reacting accordingly.

You can expect mortgage interest rates to generally move higher in the coming weeks and months. The primary reasons are 1) the recession appears to be bottoming out; 2) the housing market, while still declining, appears to be stabilizing; 3) the jobless rate is slowing; and 4) corporate earnings reports show that companies are beginning to earn bigger profits. So, ask yourself this question: Will it hurt me more to lock in now and watch rates drop another eighth or a quarter point, or will it hurt me more to keep floating and watch mortgage interest rates turn for the worse?

If you're refinancing and have tired of the roller coaster ride, then I suggest you consider locking in now and being done with it. If you're willing to take the risk and continue watching mortgage interest rates, then keep a wary eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional, because the markets can change at any moment.

My Mortgage Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...

• Lock if my closing was taking place within the next 7 days
• Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 30 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 45 days
• Float if my closing was taking place between 46 and 60 days

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers. See today's mortgage interest rates for Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire at www.LewCorcoran.com/RateSheet.

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	Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans USDA Rural Development Loans on Cape Cod and in Massachusetts Save on closing costs when you apply for a mortgage online ActiveRain Blog / Localism Mortgage Rate Forecast / New England Properties

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