Mortgage Rate Forecast for August 30, 2010 - Improving, or...?
Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:
What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:
- The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.72 this morning - the same as Friday's close.
- At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 102.78 - up 2/32 from its opening.
Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be about the same in price this morning as compared to late Friday afternoon.
Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:
The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 7-31-2010 to 8-30-2010:
Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:
- Personal Income and Outlays Report - there was a 0.2% gain in personal in July, slightly less than expected, and follows no change in June. Year-over-year, personal income is up 3.0%. Consumer spending was also unchanged in July - up 0.4%.
This report provides us with a measurement of the consumer's ability to spend and their current spending habits. Because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data usually has an impact on the mortgage market and mortgage rates. This report shows that the consumer sector is making a comeback and should help improve the now anemic economic growth. It also shows that inflation is not yet a factor. This report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
Trend in Mortgage Rates:
The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:
Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Mortgage rates are at their historic lows. They haven't been this low since the early 1950s. These low mortgage rates may be with us for some time - or they may not. Usually, mortgage rates go up during the summer months during the peak home buying season, then go down as the fall and winter seasons approach. But these are not "normal times." It's possible that mortgage rates will continue to slowly fall. However, as the last few weeks have shown, they could turn at any time.
If you're thinking about refinancing your mortgage and if these low mortgage rates make sense to you, then take advantage of them while you can. If you're happy with the mortgage rate being offered to you today and if you don't want to risk mortgage rates moving higher, then you should apply and lock in now. It's better to have locked when you should have floated than it is to float when you should have locked.
Are you in need of a mortgage to purchase a home? Or want to refinance an existing mortgage into a lower permanent fixed rate? Or want to take cash out of the equity of your home? Or consolidate debt and reduce the monthly bills? Then be sure to request a mortgage rate quote today!
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB