What the Markets Are Doing Today:
The bond market well into positive territory while Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) opened flat in morning trading. Meanwhile, the stock markets opened in negative territory.
- The Dow opened down 130 points from Friday's close
- NASDAQ opened down 32 points from Friday's close
- The 10 Year Treasury Bond opened up 18/32 from Friday's close
- FNMA 30 Year 4.0% coupon opened flat from Friday's close
Remember, on MBSs, as the price goes up, the yield goes down - and mortgage interest rates go down with it. Conversely, as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage interest rates. MBS closed down 11/32 from its opening on Friday, but is currently up 8/32 in trading this morning. I expect that today's mortgage rates will the same as the close on Friday, but may improve by 0.125% in discount points this afternoon.
Economic Reports Being Released Today:
- Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March - Released by the Conference Board, this data attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. The report showed a decline of 0.3% - and came in as analysts expected. This indicates that there is no improvement in the overall economy. On the news, prices MBSs moved higher, and mortgage rates may fall slightly this afternoon. This is considered to be a moderately important report, so we may see a slight movement in mortgage rates as a result of this report.
Important News of the Day:
Fed Chairman Bernanke will be making a speech today, but it's not likely to affect the markets or mortgage rates.
This week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. The Durable Goods Order report, which is being posted on Friday, is the only report of high importance being released this week. The LEI report released earlier today is of moderate importance. Look for more details on this week's economic data releases and events on my Weekly Mortgage Market Watch.
What Happening With Mortgage Rates Today:
Light Volatility. Overall, it should be a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates. Look for Friday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods Order report being posted. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the stock markets rally this week, bonds and MBSs will most likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. On the other hand, if stocks fall during the week, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall.
There's still continued downward pressure on MBS prices (which means higher yields and mortgage rates). The supply of bonds and T-bills on the market continues to weigh heavily on the market. The government expects to issue between $2.7 trillion and $4.2 trillion in bonds over the next two years to pay for the massive debt obligations. That in and of itself may give rise to the concerns for inflation.
No one knows how long rates will stay down this time or if they'll go any lower. If you haven't locked in a rate yet, then you may want to continue floating. While floating continues to make sense right now, the ever increasing massive government debt could soon drive mortgage rates up. So, if you like the rate that you are being offered today, then there's nothing wrong with locking in.
My Interest Rate Lock Advice for Today:
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...
- Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
- Float if my closing was taking place within 8 and 30 days
- Float if my closing was taking place between 31 and 60 days
- Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all other borrowers.
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB