Rate Forecast for June 21, 2010
Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:
What Mortgage Backed Securities Are Doing Today:
- The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% MBS coupon opened at 102.91 this morning - the same as Friday's close.
- At 9:30 AM, the 4.5% MBS coupon was trading at 102.72 - down 6/32 from its opening.
Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be as much as 0.25 points worse in price this morning as compared to Friday.
Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:
The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% coupon over the past 30 days from 5-22-2010 to 6-21-2010:
Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:
- There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.
In other news, the markets are still not certain about the economic outlook with Europe's debt problems. However, there is some good news coming out of Europe as well as better economic performance in China and Japan.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets tomorrow and Wednesday, and some feel that the Fed may lower its outlook for the economy in the second half of this year and into 2011.
Trend in Mortgage Rates:
The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past year:
Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:
Mortgage rates have returned to their lows of the year. On Friday, the price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.5% Coupon closed at 102.91, which is only 12 basis points lower than its all-time high of 103.03. After the open this morning, the MBS coupon fell in price, and is now within 31 basis points of its all-time high. As a comparison, what that means is this: if a 30 year fixed mortgage rate was 4.750% with 0.375 points on Friday, and if price of the MBS 4.5% coupon were to go as high as 103.03, then the best the 30 year fixed mortgage rate would be is 4.75% with no points today.
While it's still possible that mortgage rates could go even lower, it won't be by much. It's becoming increasingly unlikely as the European, Chinese and Japanese markets are showing signs on improvements. So, I would not risk the chance waiting for it.
If I was closing within the next 5 - 7 days, I would lock in the rate.
If you are closing in more than 7 days, send me an email to get my rate lock advice.
Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB