Mortgage Rate Forecast for June 25, 2010
Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:
What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:
- The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 100.41 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
- At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 100.41 - the same as its opening.
It is customary in the MBS market to track the coupon that is running closest to par, which is 100.00. Due to market improvements, we are now tracking the FNMA 4.0% coupon. Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be about the same in price this morning as compared to late yesterday afternoon.
Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:
The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 5-26-2010 to 6-25-2010:
Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:
- Final Revision to the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - the GDP in the 4th Quarter of 2009 was revised downward from 3.0% to an annualized rate of 2.7%. The downward adjustment is attributed to an upward revision in imports and a downward revision to personal expenditures. Year-on-year, however, real GDP is up 2.4% compared to 0.1% in the 4th quarter. Economic recovery has slowed as unemployment remains high and confidence remains low. It's not expected that consumers will be purchasing more goods again any time soon. In addition, the home buyer tax credits have expired. While significant, the data usually does not have an impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates.
- University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment - came in with a reading this morning of 76.0, a little better than expected, indicating that consumer sentiment continues to bounce back, and is at its highest level since January 2008. The past 3 readings were 75.5 in May, 73.3 in April, and 69.5 in March. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates. This report indicates that consumers are more likely to make purchases soon, and helped to drive down mortgage rates this morning.
In other news, in an overnight marathon session, the House and the Senate agreed on a financial reform package. It's expected the bill will be sent to the president for his signature by July 4th.
Trend in Mortgage Rates:
The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past year:
Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:
Mortgage rates are edging up. Yesterday, the price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% Coupon closed at 100.41, down 34 basis points from the previous day's high. Bear in mind that mortgage rates are now near their all-time lows. They could go even lower, but most likely it won't be by much as the European, Chinese and Japanese markets are showing signs of improvements. So, I would not risk the chance waiting for lower rates.
If I was closing within the next 5 - 7 days, I would lock in the rate.
If you are closing in more than 7 days, send me an email to get my rate lock advice.
Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB