Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 22, 2010 - Improving, or...?
Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:
What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:
- The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.06 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
- At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 102.06 - the same as its opening.
Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be about the same in price this morning as compared to yesterday.
Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:
The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-22-2010 to 7-22-2010:
Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates:
- Jobless Claims - 464,000 new claims for unemployment were filed last week, 14,000 more than expected, and 37,000 more than the downwardly revised 427,000 claims filed the previous week. The four-week average for unemployment is 456,000 while continuing claims for the week of July 10 rose by 223,000 to 4.567 million. All signs indicate the economy has been recovering of late but without much of an increase in jobs. This data is usually not considered to be very important to the mortgage market and had no effect on mortgage rates this morning.
- Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) - fell 0.2% in June as expected. This follows a 0.4% gain in May and a 0.1% decline in April. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. This report indicates that the overall economic outlook is still uncertain at best. This report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
- Existing Home Sales Report - released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this report provides us with a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in June to an annualized rate of 5.37 million homes. The inventory of unsold homes rose to an 8.9 month supply which could lead to a further decrease in market values. While significant, this report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
In other news, the Treasury Dept will announce later this morning the terms of the Notes and Bond auctions scheduled for next week. The Notes and Bonds are used to finance the massive government debt, and the results of these auctions could affect mortgage rates next week.
Trend in Mortgage Rates:
The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:
Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:
Mortgage rates are at their historic lows - and haven't been this low since the early 1950s. They could possibly go even lower as the global economic crisis continues. However, the stock market is over sold while the bond market is over bought, and rates could begin to head up soon as the markets begin to correct themselves. As such, I would not risk the chance waiting for lower mortgage rates.
If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:
- Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
- Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
- Float if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
- Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now
Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB