Mortgage Rate Forecast for August 19, 2010 - Improving, or...?
Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:
What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:
- The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.38 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
- At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 102.44 - up 2/32 from its opening.
Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be about the same in price this morning as compared to yesterday.
Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:
The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 7-20-2010 to 8-19-2010:
Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:
- Jobless Claims - 500,000 new claims for unemployment were filed last week, 20,000 more than expected, and 12,000 more than the upwardly revised 488,000 claims filed the previous week. This is also the highest level since November 14th 2009. The four-week average for unemployment rose by 9,000 to 482,500, the highest level since December 2009, while continuing claims for the week of August 7 fell by 13,000 to 4.49 million. This report shows that employers are cutting jobs as the economic recovery slows. While significant, surprisingly this report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
- Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) - rose 0.1% in July as expected. This follows a 0.2% decline in June. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. This report indicates that the overall economic outlook is still uncertain at best. This report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
In other news, the Treasury Dept will announce later this morning the terms of the Notes and Bond auctions scheduled for next week. The Notes and Bonds are used to finance the massive government debt, and the results of these auctions could affect mortgage rates next week.
Trend in Mortgage Rates:
The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 15 years:
Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Mortgage rates are at their historic lows. They haven't been this low since the early 1950s. These low mortgage rates may be with us for some time - or they may not. Usually, mortgage rates go up during the summer months during the peak home buying season, then go down as the fall and winter seasons approach. But these are not "normal times." It's possible that mortgage rates will continue to slowly fall. However, as the last couple of days have shown, they could turn at any time.
If you're thinking about refinancing your mortgage and if these low mortgage rates make sense to you, then take advantage of them while you can. If you're happy with the mortgage rate being offered to you today and if you don't want to risk mortgage rates moving higher, then you should apply and lock in now. It's better to have locked when you should have floated than it is to float when you should have locked.
Are you in need of a mortgage to purchase a home? Or want to refinance an existing mortgage into a lower permanent fixed rate? Or want to take cash out of the equity of your home? Or consolidate debt and reduce the monthly bills? Then be sure to request a mortgage rate quote today!
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB