Mortgage Rate Forecast for August 24, 2010 - Improving, or...?
Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:
What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:
- The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.59 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
- At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 102.82 - up 7/32 from its opening.
Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be up to 0.25 points better in price this morning as compared to yesterday.
Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:
The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 7-25-2010 to 8-24-2010:
Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:
- Existing Home Sales Report - released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this report provides us with a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. Existing home sales fell 27.2% in July to an annualized rate of 3.83 million homes - much worse then expected - and is at the lowest level since June 1995. The inventory of unsold homes rose 2.5% to 3.98 million - a 12.5 month supply - the worse in 11 years. Prices of homes are down only 0.2%; however, this could lead to a further decline in home market values. This report led to lower pricing for mortgage rates this morning.
In other news, the Treasury Dept. will be auctioning $37 billion in 2-Year Notes today. The Notes are used to finance the massive government debt. If there is a strong demand for the Notes, we should see the bond market move higher (resulting in lower mortgage rates) during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to a broader selling in bonds and mortgage backed securities. The selling of mortgage backed securities could result in higher mortgage rates.
Trend in Mortgage Rates:
The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 5 years:
Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Mortgage rates are at their historic lows. They haven't been this low since the early 1950s. These low mortgage rates may be with us for some time - or they may not. Usually, mortgage rates go up during the summer months during the peak home buying season, then go down as the fall and winter seasons approach. But these are not "normal times." It's possible that mortgage rates will continue to slowly fall. However, as the last couple of days have shown, they could turn at any time.
If you're thinking about refinancing your mortgage and if these low mortgage rates make sense to you, then take advantage of them while you can. If you're happy with the mortgage rate being offered to you today and if you don't want to risk mortgage rates moving higher, then you should apply and lock in now. It's better to have locked when you should have floated than it is to float when you should have locked.
Are you in need of a mortgage to purchase a home? Or want to refinance an existing mortgage into a lower permanent fixed rate? Or want to take cash out of the equity of your home? Or consolidate debt and reduce the monthly bills? Then be sure to request a mortgage rate quote today!
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB