Rate Forecast for September 21, 2010 - Improving, or...?
Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:
What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:
- The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.50 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
- At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 102.66 - up 5/32 from its opening.
Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be up to 0.25 points better in price this morning as compared to yesterday afternoon.
Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:
The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 8-22-2010 to 9-21-2010:
Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:
- Housing Starts - rose 10.5% in August to an annualized rate of 598,000 units, and is better than expected. Housing starts rose 0.4% in July, but fell 8.7% in June and fell 14.9% in May. Permits for new constructions rose 1.8% in August after falling 4.1% in July. Usually, this report has little to no impact on the mortgage market.
In other news, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, and will adjourn this afternoon. There isn't much the Fed can do to improve the recovery efforts, so we don't expect to see any change in key interest rates. However, if there is any change in the regular canned portions of the statement, we could see a sizable change in mortgage rates this afternoon.
Trend in Mortgage Rates:
The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 5 years:
Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Mortgage rates are off their historic lows as the overall economic outlook is beginning to improve. Given the most recent economic and job reports, it now appears that mortgage rates are as low as they will ever go.
If you're thinking about refinancing your mortgage and if these low mortgage rates make sense to you, then take advantage of them while you can. If you're happy with the mortgage rate being offered to you today and if you don't want to risk mortgage rates moving higher, then you should apply and lock in now. It's better to have locked when you should have floated than it is to float when you should have locked.
Are you in need of a mortgage to purchase a home? Or want to refinance an existing mortgage into a lower permanent fixed rate? Or want to take cash out of the equity of your home? Or consolidate debt and reduce the monthly bills? Then be sure to request a mortgage rate quote today!
East Bridgewater, MA 02333
Lew Corcoran, ASP®, IAHSP, IAHSP-CB