Mortgage Rate Forecast

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 30, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 10:13:38 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 30, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.09 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 102.56 - up 9/32 from its opening.

Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be up to 0.250 points better in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-30-2010 to 7-30-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:

Preliminary Reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - the GDP in the 2nd Quarter of 2010 grew at an annualized rate of 2.4%, slightly less than expected, and much less than the 5.4% growth rate in the 4th Quarter of 2009 and the 3.7% growth rate of the first quarter of 2010. So far, this has been a jobless recovery, and weekly unemployment in recent weeks has continued at just above the 450,000 level. As confidence remains low and unemployment remains high, it's not expected that consumers will be purchasing more goods again any time soon. While significant, the data did not have an impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
Employment Cost Index (ECI) - is up 0.5% for the 2nd quarter of 2010, slightly more than the 0.4% increase that was expected. The ECI measures the costs of employee wages and benefits, this providing us with an indication of the threat of wage inflation. Wages & salaries rose 0.4% while benefits rose 0.6%. The year-over-year rate for wages & salaries is up 1.8%. The ECI report did not have an impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment - came in with a reading this morning of 67.8, a little better than expected, but still down significantly from April's and May's readings. The past 3 readings were 66.5 in June, 75.5 in May, and 73.3 in April. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates. This report indicates that consumers are not very likely to make many purchases. The consumer sentiment report did not have an impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Mortgage rates are at their historic lows - they haven't been this low since the early 1950s - and continue to go lower as the global economic crisis continues. However, the stock market is over sold while the bond market is over bought. It also appears that banks in Europe are not as bad off as previously thought. Mortgage rates could head up soon as the markets begin to correct themselves. As such, I would not take too much of a chance in waiting for even lower mortgage rates.

If you're happy with the mortgage rate being offered to you today and if you don't want to risk mortgage rates moving higher, then you should apply and lock in now. It's better to have locked when you should have floated than it is to float when you should have locked.

Are you in need of a mortgage to purchase a home? Or want to refinance an existing mortgage into a lower permanent fixed rate? Or want to take cash out of the equity of your home? Or consolidate debt and reduce the monthly bills? Then be sure to request a mortgage rate quote today!

Lew Corcoran, Sr. Mortgage Consultant in Massachusetts
Conventional Loans / Conforming Jumbo Loans
Jumbo Loans to $2 Million
Reverse Mortgages / FHA Loans / VA Loans
USDA Rural Development Loans
FHA 203(k) and HomeStyle Rehabilitation Loans
FNMA HomePath Mortgages / MassHousing Mortgages

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 29, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 09:51:48 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 29, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.09 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.97 - down 4/32 from its opening.

Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be up to 0.125 points worse in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-29-2010 to 7-29-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:

Jobless Claims - 457,000 new claims for unemployment were filed last week, 3,000 less than expected, and 11,000 less than the upwardly revised 468,000 claims filed the previous week. The four-week average for unemployment is fell by 4,500 to 452,500 while continuing claims for the week of July 17 rose by 81,000 to 4.565 million. All signs indicate the economy has been recovering of late, but the jobless rate remains stubbornly high. This data is usually not considered to be very important to the mortgage market and had no effect on mortgage rates this morning.

In other news, the Treasury Dept. will be auctioning $29 billion in 7-Year Notes today. The Notes are used to finance the massive government debt. If there is a strong demand for the Notes, we should see the bond market move higher (resulting in lower mortgage rates) during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to a broader selling in bonds and mortgage backed securities. The selling of mortgage backed securities could result in higher mortgage rates.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Mortgage rates are at their historic lows - they haven't been this low since the early 1950s. They could possibly go even lower as the global economic crisis continues. However, the stock market is over sold while the bond market is over bought. It also appears that banks in Europe are not as bad off as previously thought. Mortgage rates could head up soon as the markets begin to correct themselves. As such, I would not risk the chance waiting for lower mortgage rates.

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 28, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 09:56:02 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 28, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.84 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.89 - up 2/32 from its opening.

Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes down, the yield goes up - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be about the same in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-28-2010 to 7-28-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:

Durable Goods Orders Report - there was an overall 1.0% decline in new durable goods orders in June, worse than the 1.0% rise that was expected. This follows a 0.8% decline in May, and increases in each of the previous 5 months. When the transportation component is excluded, new durable goods orders fell 0.6% which follows a 1.2% increase in June. Year-on-year, overall new orders for durable goods are up 15.9%, and follows a 15.2% increase in April. This data is usually not considered to be very important to the mortgage market and had no effect on mortgage rates this morning.

In other news, the Beige Book will be released at 2 pm this afternoon. The Beige Book is released two weeks ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meetings, and the Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings. Look for a potential market reaction to the release of the Beige Book during afternoon trading hours.

The Treasury Dept. will be auctioning $37 billion in 5-Year Notes today. The Notes are used to finance the massive government debt. If there is a strong demand for the Notes, we should see the bond market move higher (resulting in lower mortgage rates) during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to a broader selling in bonds and mortgage backed securities. The selling of mortgage backed securities could result in higher mortgage rates.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 27, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 10:37:18 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 27, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.81 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.72 - up 3/32 from its opening.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-27-2010 to 7-27-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - consumer confidence for July fell 50.4, and is worse than the 51.0 reading that was expected. The weakness is attributed mostly to the lack of job prospects and income. The previous readings were 52.9 in May, 63.3 in May and 57.9 in April. Posted by the Conference Board, this measures consumer willingness to spend. As a comparison, a reading of 80 or better is considered a signal of economic health. Retail sales typically move in tandem with consumer optimism. Because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market traders and can have a significant influence on the mortgage market. If consumers are less confident in their personal financial situations, they are less likely to make large purchases. Because of the lower CCI readings, this report led to improved mortgage rates this morning.

In other news, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 1.2% in May, reflecting an increase in home price as homebuyers took advantage of tax incentives. On a year-on-year basis, home prices have increased an average 5.4% nationwide. The report shows that prices of homes are holding despite the end of tax incentives. However, it does not show that the housing market is in any type of recovery.

The Treasury Dept. will be auctioning $38 billion in 2-Year Notes today. The Notes are used to finance the massive government debt. If there is a strong demand for the Notes, we should see the bond market move higher (resulting in lower mortgage rates) during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to a broader selling in bonds and mortgage backed securities. The selling of mortgage backed securities could result in higher mortgage rates.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 26, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 10:48:33 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 26, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.75 this morning - the same as Friday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.88 - up 4/32 from its opening.

Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be up to 0.125 points better in price this morning as compared to Friday.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-26-2010 to 7-26-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates Today:

New Home Sales - rose more than 23% in June to an annualized rate of 330,000 homes - 20,000 more than expected - after falling more than 36% in May. Analysts were expecting to see an annualized rate of 310,000 homes. In addition, the inventory of new homes on the market fell to a 7.6 month supply. And, the average price of new homes fell 1.4% to $213,400. Normally, this data did not have much of an impact on the mortgage market this morning.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Is the growing HAMP criticism fair?

Esko Kiuru — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 11:37:04 -0400

Home Affordable Modification Program, or more commonly HAMP, was rolled out to allow mortgage lenders and servicers to make available trial modifications to an estimated 3 to 4 million homeowners.When Treasury announced its birth it raised hopes among not only mortgage borrowers in trouble but also government officials who frantically tried to bring the collapsing housing market back to its feet and with that give the badly-mauled banking sector something more concrete to lean on. But things haven't turned out all that well with HAMP.

At least that's what SIGTARP says. SIGTARP is another wonderful acronym - among so many - that has risen to fame on the heels of the memorable finance and real estate crash and stands for Special Inspector General for Troubled Asset Relief Program. That's a long one. In short, he is - could be a she too - tasked to monitor the government's massive struggle to bring reasonable order to the shaky national banking system and the besieged housing realm.

SIGTARP refers to the 389,198 permanent mortgage modifications HAMP has thus far managed to generate, as was recently reported by Treasury.This of course is far less than what the original plan of at least doing 3 million of them called for. One thing is that HAMP is an ongoing process and perhaps when it's all said and done that plateau can be reached. But, frankly, it probably won't happen.

For one, due to high mortgage redefaultrates under HAMP underwriting guidelines have been tightened leading to scores of cancelled trial and permanent modifications.It is greatly lowering the potential candidate pool. Short sales are making serious inroads as a viable option for many struggling home loan recipients. Doing a HAMP requires a lot of paperwork and patience and many are willing to take their chances with short sales.

The underwater menace seems to come into play with HAMP, too.Its malicious impact is somehow going to touch all corners of the housing enterprise. When a homeowner is sufficiently underwater he can be essentially convinced that making those lower HAMP payments for years on end still won't pull him out of the negative equity hole anytime soon, so he clearly has little incentive to apply for HAMP. Lower payments are great, but where is the equity? After careful consideration many choose to just simply walk away from their mortgages.

Besides, mortgage lenders generally haven't been all that enthused, for one reason or another, about putting their arms around the program either.HAMP appears to have suffered from clearly-defined goals, as SIGTARP claims, but also from rapidly shifting real estate market conditions. With more assertive administration Treasury could have streamlined its direction and possibly been more efficient in the use of taxpayers' money.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Provided by:

Esko Kiuru
Mortgage and real estate market commentator

www.BluefoxToday.com - syndicated mortgage and real estate blog

eskokiuru@gmail.com
My cell: 702-499-1006

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 23, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Fri, 23 Jul 2010 09:44:39 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 23, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.84 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.94 - up 3/32 from its opening.

Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be about the same in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-23-2010 to 7-23-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates:

There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

In other news, the Treasury Dept will be auctioning $42 billion in 2-Year notes, $40 billion in 5-Year notes, and $31 billion in 7-Year Notes for a total of $78 billion next week. The Notes and Bonds are used to finance the massive government debt. The results of these auctions could affect mortgage rates next week.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Mortgage rates are at their historic lows - they haven't been this low since the early 1950s. They could possibly go even lower as the global economic crisis continues. However, the stock market is over sold while the bond market is over bought. Mortgage rates could head up soon as the markets begin to correct themselves. As such, I would not risk the chance waiting for lower mortgage rates.

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 22, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 10:40:56 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 22, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 102.06 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 102.06 - the same as its opening.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-22-2010 to 7-22-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates:

Jobless Claims - 464,000 new claims for unemployment were filed last week, 14,000 more than expected, and 37,000 more than the downwardly revised 427,000 claims filed the previous week. The four-week average for unemployment is 456,000 while continuing claims for the week of July 10 rose by 223,000 to 4.567 million. All signs indicate the economy has been recovering of late but without much of an increase in jobs. This data is usually not considered to be very important to the mortgage market and had no effect on mortgage rates this morning.
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) - fell 0.2% in June as expected. This follows a 0.4% gain in May and a 0.1% decline in April. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. This report indicates that the overall economic outlook is still uncertain at best. This report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
Existing Home Sales Report - released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this report provides us with a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in June to an annualized rate of 5.37 million homes. The inventory of unsold homes rose to an 8.9 month supply which could lead to a further decrease in market values. While significant, this report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.

In other news, the Treasury Dept will announce later this morning the terms of the Notes and Bond auctions scheduled for next week. The Notes and Bonds are used to finance the massive government debt, and the results of these auctions could affect mortgage rates next week.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:

Mortgage rates are at their historic lows - and haven't been this low since the early 1950s. They could possibly go even lower as the global economic crisis continues. However, the stock market is over sold while the bond market is over bought, and rates could begin to head up soon as the markets begin to correct themselves. As such, I would not risk the chance waiting for lower mortgage rates.

If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now

Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 21, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 10:14:44 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 21, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.62 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.62 - the same as its its opening.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-21-2010 to 7-21-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Rates:

There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:

If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now

Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 20, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 10:06:14 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 20, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.61 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.77 - up 5/32 from its opening.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-20-2010 to 7-20-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Housing Starts - fell 5% in June to an annualized rate of 549,000 units, and is much worse than expected. Housing starts rose 3.9% in April and 5.0% in March, but fell 14.9% in May. Permits for new constructions rose 2.1% in June and follows a 5.9% decline in May and a 10.9% decline in April. Usually, this report has little to no impact on the mortgage market. However, this report led to lower mortgage rates this morning.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:

If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now

Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.

Foreclosure filings decline - short sales climb - mortgage distress hangs around

Esko Kiuru — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 17:31:40 -0400

Real estate market observers have mixed feelings about RealtyTrac's Midyear 2010 Foreclosure Report. It says that 1,654,634 homeowners were sent at least one mortgage foreclosure filing from January through June. That translates to over 3,000,000 by the end of the year and RealtyTrac forecasts that over 1 million of them will eventually become repossessions, or REOs - real estate owned. The number by itself is of course alarming, but the current six month number actually is a drop of 5% from the second half of last year. Ordinarily in any housing enterprise that would be something to feel upbeat about.

On closer look the home loan picture isn't all sweet grapes and chocolate treats after all. Mortgage lenders and servicers have lately changed course to give a short sale a chance to work before filing foreclosure notices. The government has aggressively promoted its mortgage loan modification programs that have had a preventive impact despite the private sector's reluctance to get fully engaged. Yet, these initiatives have been a disappointment when measured by their originally announced goals. Moreover, mortgage lenders often are disorganized and undermanned to handle the torrent of foreclosures and their workforces seem to lack the necessary training to be effective, therefore foreclosure action can be delayed for months.

These factors have shifted the emphasis away from mortgage foreclosure statistics and are obviously responsible for the 5% decrease. In the meantime distressed properties continue to saturate unabated the landscape from Las Vegas to the shores of Florida. A great many are underwater and are hard-pressed to find any meaningful relief in the near future. The job situation is slowly improving at least in some regions but still isn't strong enough to decisively begin lifting struggling homeowners to their feet.

Nevada maintains the dubious top spot on the list of most foreclosure filings with almost 6% of all households receiving one at the midyear mark. In pure numbers that is 64,429 homes, a bunch really. Arizona came in second with 3.36%, followed by Florida at 3.15%. California registered a score of 2.54%, rounding out the four states that have been dominating this difficult statistic from the beginning of this historic real estate collapse.

The underwater problem will likely be a drag on the housing market for longer than anyone can imagine. But, there appears to be one relatively fast cure for it should the decision makers in Washington - like the Fed and Treasury - have the backbone and political support to give it a try. It's called inflation. With a steady dose of that often-ridiculed medicine home prices ought to begin tip-toeing upward, preferably at a controlled pace. In time it would pull homeowners out of the abyss and give them real equity again that would make them feel better about a lot of things. In addition, banks and investors now smelling the offensive odor wafting from their mortgage portfolios would see a gradual change to that downright embarrassment. Just an idea.

Photo of the Fed by stantoncady

_______________________________________________________________________________

Provided by:

Esko Kiuru
Mortgage and real estate market commentator

www.BluefoxToday.com - syndicated mortgage and real estate blog

eskokiuru@gmail.com
My cell: 702-499-1006

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 19, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 10:23:36 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 19, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.88 this morning - the same as Friday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.75 - down 4/32 from its opening.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-19-2010 to 7-19-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:

If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now

Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 16, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Fri, 16 Jul 2010 16:06:03 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 16, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.72 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.69 - down 1/32 from its opening.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-16-2010 to 7-16-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - as expected, the overall price index fell by 0.1% in June - mostly because of lower gasoline prices. The core data which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2% - slightly more than expected. This is one of the most important monthly reports that we see as it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. With unemployment still at high, this report shows that inflation continues to be held in check even as the overall economy is improving. This report had no impact on the mortgage market or mortgage rates this morning.
University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment - came in with a reading this morning of 66.5, much worse than expected, indicating that consumer sentiment is waning. The past 3 readings were 76.0 in June, 75.5 in May, and 73.3 in April. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates. While this report indicates that consumers are not as likely to make large purchases soon, mortgage rates improved this morning as investors took money out of stocks and invested in bonds.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:

If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:

Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now

Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 15, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Fri, 16 Jul 2010 16:04:38 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 15, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 101.41 this morning - the same as yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.53 - up 4/32 from its opening.

Remember, on mortgage backed securities (MBSs), as the price goes up, the yield comes down - and so do mortgage rates. I expect that mortgage rates will be up to 0.125% better in price this morning as compared to yesterday.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-15-2010 to 7-15-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Producer Price Index (PPI) - fell 0.5% in June, and follows a revised 0.3% decline in May and a 0.1% April. This means that prices paid at the producer level fell, and is keeping inflation in check. The decrease in the PPI was attributed mostly to a decrease in food and energy costs. At the core level, the PPI rose just 0.1% as expected. The core level excludes the more volatile food and energy prices. Falling prices decreases the fear of inflation and tends to have a positive impact on the mortgage market. While significant, this report had no impact on mortgage rates this morning.
Jobless Claims - 429,000 new claims for unemployment were filed last week, 16,000 less than expected, and 29,000 less than the upwardly adjusted 458,000 claims filed the previous week. The four-week average for unemployment fell 11,750 to 455,250 while continuing claims for the week of June 26 rose by 22,000 to 4.581 million. All signs indicate the economy has been recovering of late but without much of an increase in jobs. This data is usually not considered to be very important to the mortgage market and had no effect on mortgage rates this morning.
Industrial Production Report - production slowed to a 0.1% increase in June, but is better than the 0.2% decline that was expected. This follows a 1.2% increase in May and almost a year in steady gains. The decline is due primarily to an decrease in manufacturing, which is down 0.4%. Mortgage rates improved this morning due to the downturn in industrial production.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:

If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:

Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
Float if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now

Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 14, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 10:41:56 -0400

Trend and Forecast in Mortgage Rates on July 14, 2010 - Improving, or...?

Here are some of the events affecting mortgage rates today:

What Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Are Doing Today:

The price of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% MBS coupon opened at 100.94 this morning - down 11/32 from yesterday's close.
At 9:30 AM, the 4.0% MBS coupon was trading at 101.16 - up 8/32 from its opening.

Price Trend in Mortgage Backed Securities:

The chart below shows the price trend of the FNMA 30-Year 4.0% coupon over the past 30 days from 6-14-2010 to 7-14-2010:

Economic Reports, News, and Events Affecting Mortgage Interest Rates Today:

Retail Sales Report - Consumers are still spending. Retail sales fell 0.5% in June, more than expected, but better than the 1.1% decline in May. When auto sales are excluded, retail sales fell only 0.1%. When auto and gasoline sales are excluded, retail sales actually rose 0.1%. However, retail sales are still up 4.8% from this same time last year. The retail sales report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments. This is one of the more important reports we see each month because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy. The retail sales report had a positive effect on mortgage rates this morning.

In other news, the Treasury Dept. will be auctioning $13 billion in 30-Year bonds today. The Notes are used to finance the massive government debt. If there is a strong demand for the Notes, we should see the bond market move higher (resulting in lower mortgage rates) during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to a broader selling in bonds and mortgage backed securities. The selling of mortgage backed securities could result in higher mortgage rates.

Trend in Mortgage Rates:

The chart below shows the trend in mortgage rates over the past 3 years:

Mortgage Rate Lock Advice:

If I were financing a home or refinancing a mortgage today, I would:

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 15 days
Lock if my closing was taking place between 16 and 30 days
Float if my closing was taking place more than 30 days from now

Be sure to check out today's mortgage rates.